Thanksgiving is here, which means we get three NFL games all day. Why have an awkward conversation with loved ones you see a few times a year when you can make bets? Skip the political talk as teams make their playoff pushes and you try to earn some extra cash for Christmas. Now, let’s take a look at the best NFL bets and props for Thanksgiving Day so you know who to place your best on.
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Best NFL Thanksgiving Day bets and props
Game Pick Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
When: Thanksgiving Day, 12:30 p.m. ET
WynnBet Lines: Invoices (-9.5), Plus/Minus: 54.5
The first game to kick off Turkey Day features the Buffalo Bills versus the Detroit Lions. The Bills have won just one of their last three games, while the Lions have won three in a row. However, as Josh Allen‘s elbow is getting healthier, the Bills will be looking to keep racking up wins to try and secure the best playoff seed possible. Detroit is likely to miss the playoffs.
However, it’s been years since they’ve been able to rack up consistent wins, and it feels good for the franchise to be able to do so. Those three games, however, were against the Packers, Bears and Giants. Two teams have struggled this year and one that appears to be in decline.
The Bills have an offense that scores the second-most points per game in the league while the Lions allow the seventh-most points per game. Meanwhile, the Lions’ offense is the ninth-most points per game, but the Bills’ defense is allowing the fifth-fewest points per game. It makes me think the bills are going to be too much for the Lions to handle.
However, will they be ten points too many to cover the gap? After a three-game winning streak, the Lions are 2-8 ATS in Game 4. They are also 1-6 in their last seven games after facing the Giants. The Bills on the other hand are 12-3 ATS on the road on artificial turf. I think the Bills overwhelm them in a high-scoring game to start the day. Look for the Bills to win this one easily, 38-24.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Day bets for Bills @ Detroit: Bills (-9.5) and over 54.5.
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions Prop Bets
Why just sweat bets on spreads and totals when you can also get into prop bets? For the Bills and Lions, I like running backs in this game. jamal williams scored six touchdowns in the last four games, including at least one in three of those four. Overall, he scored in six of ten games.
Therefore, I like Jamaal Williams to score a touchdown (-110). The Lions have one of the worst defenses in the league on average per game. Single divinerThe rush total of seems a bit high at 58.5, but I see them starting this game with ground control. Devin Singletary has over 58.5 rushing yards (-110) is another prop bet that I like.
Game pick between New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys
When: Thanksgiving Day, 4:30 p.m. ET
WynnBet Lines: Cowboys (-10), Over/Under: 45.5
The second game to air on television on Thanksgiving Day begins at 4:30 a.m. EST when the New York Giants travel to rival Dallas Cowboys. The Giants have been decimated by injuries, and that will affect their game against a Dallas Cowboys team that turns red at just the right time.
Both teams share a 7-3 record and are trying to catch the Eagles 9-1 for the NFC East Division title. The Giants are coming off an embarrassing 31-18 win over the Detroit Lions, while the Cowboys are coming off a 40-3 win over the Minnesota Vikings.
I wish the Giants weren’t so beaten for this game. They have injuries both in attack and defense but their best player Saquan Barkley remains healthy. Daniel Jones has done a great job of improving his game this year. Both of these teams are built on a strong defensive and running team. However, I think the Cowboys have a better passing offense, especially with the Giants injury. Winning a conference game by ten points is not easy to do, even if the underdog is a bad team.
The Giants aren’t a bad team, and head coach Brian Daboll will have this team ready to keep the game close. In the end, I don’t think they get the job done, but I expect a close game and maybe a 24-20 finish.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Day Bets for Giants @ Cowboys: Giants +10, Under 45.5.
Paris New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
The prop bets for this game are tough to pick because you have to think the Cowboys will try to limit Barkley and the Giants will look to limit Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. The Giants have a lot of wide receiver injuries. Therefore, someone is going to have to intervene. If the Cowboys focus on Darius SlaytonI think Laurent Cager could step in and make a few plays.
I like Lawrence Cager on 14.5 rec yards (-120) for the Giants. I also like Saquon Barkley’s 100+ rushing yards/recovery (-115) as this offense crosses his success. For the Cowboys, Tony Pollard has over 75 rushing/recreation yards (-195) looks easy because he led that backfield in yards even when Zeke is healthy. The other prop bet I like for the Cowboys is Micah Parsons more than 0.5 bags (-150). Parsons is a beast and will likely find his way to Daniel Jones at least once in this game.
New England Patriots Pick @ Minnesota Vikings
When: Thanksgiving Day, 8:20 p.m. ET
WynnBet Lines: Patriots (+2.5), Over/Under: 42.5
To close out NFL Thanksgiving Day betting, we have the New England Patriots heading to the Minnesota Vikings. The Patriots are coming off a happy win over the Jets, where they won in the dying seconds of the game. Meanwhile, the Vikings are in shock after such a beating from the Cowboys. At first glance, this one might seem easy, and I think it’s tough for the Patriots to catch the Vikings right after that big loss.
However, the Patriots have the 2nd best defense in terms of points scored per game. They will look to limit all Vikings offensive playmakers, including Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook. The most important factor of this game is that we cannot forget how Kirk Cousins was in prime time.
The Patriots are playing great in November, 7-0 ATS in the last seven games. They also tend to keep winning when they’re on a three-game winning streak. They are 8-2 ATS in Game 4. Meanwhile, Minnesota struggled against defenses that averaged 17 points per game or less. They especially struggle when that defense is good at limiting yards per rush. They will not be able to set the tone as they are used to. This one will be a defensive struggle, and the Patriots defense is better. I see them beating the Vikings 16-14.
Best NFL Thanksgiving Day bets for Patriots @ Vikings: Patriots +120, Patriots +2.5 and under 42.5.
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings Prop Bets
The player I really care about in this game is Rhamander Stevenson. He really upped his game this year and stepped up for the Patriots. However, with success, the totals tend to increase. I like his style of play but I take Rhamondre Stevenson is under 92.5 rushing/receiving yards (-115). On the other side of the ball, I’ll take Dalvin Cook on 89.5 rushing yards/recovery (-120).
I think Cook will be able to move the ball in volume, even if it’s not a lot of points for the Vikings. Justin Jefferson had a tough game last week after being targeted five times at a season low. He’s had six games where he received double-digit targets, and I think Cousins gets back to throwing a lot. Justin Jefferson, over 6.5 receptions (+100), feels solid.