College football odds: The impact of Arch Manning’s game on Texas football

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

When five-star rookie quarterback Arch Manning signed up to play football for the Texas Longhorns at the end of June, you could almost hear the celebrations and the jubilation of Austin.

Manning’s decision hasn’t changed the betting odds for the upcoming season – Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia are still the heavy hitters to win the 2023 CFP National Championship – but it will certainly help. to swing the pendulum over the next decade and restore order to a storied Longhorn program.

And while Manning won’t take a regular season shot in burnt orange for at least 14 more months (Class of 2023), the recruiting domino effect will be fascinating to watch.

Like my FOX Sports teammate Joel Klatt said last month, “Steve Sarkisian may have won the most coveted award we’ve ever seen in recruiting. It’s not just because this guy chose Texas, it’s because the Manning family chose Texas.”

To break down Manning’s impact from a gambling perspective, I rounded up nine Las Vegas betting buddies to get their thoughts on Arch Manning’s commitment to Sarkisian and what it means for the Longhorns’ future. .

These are their stories.

“I’m on vacation, mi amigo,” said WynnBET Vice President of Trading Alan Berg.

Good. Fortunately, Berg’s lieutenant, Motoi Pearson, was ready to rock.

“Arch found him a nice home in Texas,” WynnBET’s lead trader told FOX Sports. “[Sarkisian] finds talented offensive pieces to surround any quarterback. And any legitimate quarterback has to be worth at least one touchdown if he wants to be like Peyton.

“Do I think he has that kind of talent? Yes. But only time will tell.

Pearson’s insinuation that Manning might be worth seven points on the betting line one day is very strong. Recent Heisman Trophy winners Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson were all worth around a touchdown, if not more.

Bryce Young’s value is there too, but it’s harder to quantify his true value because Alabama is an offensive juggernaut, and Nick Saban would just drop another top-notch prospect under center if Young went down.

Either way, Texas is no doubt dreaming of Manning reaching his potential. More importantly, you don’t just get Manning when you successfully convince a player of that caliber to commit. You’re opening the door to a whole new set of offensive weapons that will want to play with the next Eli or Peyton.

“[Manning’s signing] It’s a testament to the quality of the rookies they’re bringing in and that the program is on the right track,” Circa Sports director of sports betting Matt Metcalf said. And it shouldn’t be hard to get the coins there. -down.

“I’ve been waiting for Texas to return to elite status, and I think they have a chance to get back there with Manning.”

Metcalf’s buddy John Murray is also paying close attention to recruiting.

“We’re seeing the reports of them crushing it on the recruiting track, so we’re watching that closely,” the Westgate SuperBook executive director said. “But Texas is almost always a hot team, and they’ve been letting people down for years playing in the Big 12. It’s about to get a lot harder for them when they move on to the SEC. . [in 2025]. We won’t make any significant adjustments until they show us something on the pitch.”

“Texas is a massive program that has played like a Mountain West program for the past few years,” added US Bookmaking COO Robert Walker. “The Horns have been average in every sense of the word, so it’s fascinating to see them land a player like Arch Manning.

“However, I still feel like Texas won’t pull it off one way or another. Expectations are still high in Longhorn Land, and now they’re through the roof. And I’m not no biggest Steve Sarkisian fan anymore because no one leaves Washington or Washington State and doesn’t. I don’t feel my anger.”

“Texas goes to Texas,” ex-Las Vegas bettor Aaron Kessler said.

Other bookmakers remain curious about Manning’s true potential. It’s one thing to watch him tear up seven-on-seven drills and dominate lower high school level competition. It’s another to take pictures in the notorious SEC, which is set to be the home of the Longhorns for most of Arch’s career.

“I don’t have enough of a record of what he’s done so far, but if he’s as good as advertised, Texas will definitely be ready to compete from day one against the heavyweights of the SEC,” said Rex Beyers, Head of Betting at PlayUp USA. “Manning has already helped several other four- and five-star recruits who might have been on the verge of committing to Texas. Sometimes this is more important than what Arch itself is worth to the program.”

“He was the first freshman to enter college from his high school in 40 years,” Rampart Casino sports betting manager Duane Colucci said. “There are tons of YouTube and Twitter videos showing him, but others think he’d only be a three-star prospect if his name wasn’t Manning. Eli and Peyton made it, there So there’s no reason why Arch shouldn’t, but he still has a long way to go.”

Then there’s the resident curmudgeon, who always reminds me of the importance of staying in the moment and keeping the horse in front of the cart.

“It’s not a factor until it’s the center of a team that we field,” said Circa Sports assistant sports betting manager Jeff Davis. “In the meantime, it’s about as relevant as Charlie Woods [Tiger’s 13-year-old son] win a golf tournament.”

Despite Davis’ disdain in the present, Manning will soon be competing with either Hudson Card or Quinn Ewers for QB1 status on Sarkisian’s depth chart. And we’ll eventually learn Manning’s value on the betting line and whether Texas can stand up and challenge the college football heavyweights.

Call me a sucker, but I can’t wait to see how Arch Manning’s college career pans out, and I hope the Texas Longhorns return to the limelight.

Some of my fondest betting memories are riding the Texas train and “Over” in Vince Young and the Horns historic 13-0 season in 2005. Texas finished 12-1 ATS (ATS) and 12-1 against the “Over” en route to a victory in the national championship game against USC.

It will be a while before the Longhorns are legitimate contenders for another title. Heading into the upcoming season, most US sportsbooks are trading them 50-1 or more behind Texas A&M, USC, Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Michigan.

But that doesn’t mean the Longhorn faithful aren’t dreaming of another confetti party with Arch Manning taking center stage.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He will probably choose against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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