During a campaign, political elections are always expected to tighten up as Election Day approaches. But what happened in the first week of the federal campaign has left those working in the betting markets stunned.
After starting out as a big underdog just days ago, big money inflows are pushing Scott Morrison into the favorite to win another three-year tenure in the betting markets.
“It’s been a remarkable 72 hours,” says Richard Hummerston of online betting company BlueBet.
During this period, a staggering 80% of the money went to the Coalition.
“They were $2.65 on Thursday night. But due to the overwhelming support for the Coalition, we had to reduce their price,” he told Yahoo News Australia.
“A month ago, the Coalition cost $3.40 compared to Labour’s $1.35.
“We also saw several big bets over $1,000 on the Coalition over the weekend. If that money continues, they will jump as small favorites.”
Currently on BlueBet, the Coalition is favored at $1.85 against Labor at $1.95.
At another betting house, the Morrison government – which has been plagued by scandals during its last term – momentarily took the lead on Monday with BetFair setting it at shorter odds ($1.97) than the hand hard work ($2.04) to win the election.
While Labor has since backed down, it was the first time the Coalition was favored on the platform in nearly three years.
On BlueBet, the Coalition was last favored in November 2021.
“Until last month it was all for Labor which was only $1.33 on March 11 while the Coalition was at $3.40,” Mr Hummerston said.
At SportsBet, the race is also now neck and neck with Labor at $1.85 and Coalition at $1.90 on Tuesday morning.
Barely out of the gates, and the race is sure to be tight.
On Tuesday, the ninth day of campaigning, Scott Morrison circles the fringe seats in Western Australia where the government hopes to retain as many seats as possible in the lower house, with Labor expected to make gains.
Meanwhile, Labor leader Anthony Albanese circles the fringe seats in Queensland, a state where Labor put up a horrific showing in the 2019 election. He focuses on helping people rebuild after natural disasters and highlights perceived government failures in preparing for and responding to environmental disasters.
NewsPoll shows neither side wins
New polls show Labor and the Coalition losing primary votes after the first week of campaigning.
Survey results published in The Australian on Monday night’s show, 36% would vote Labour, down one point from 37% on April 10.
Support for the Coalition’s primary votes fell by the same margin, from 36% to 35% over the same period, to April 18.
Mr Albanese’s personal satisfaction rating dropped significantly from minus three to minus 14, while Mr Morrison’s improved slightly from minus 12 to minus 9.
Do you have a tip for the story? Email: [email protected]