NCAA Tournament odds: A deep dive into Coach K’s time at Duke


Mike Krzyzewski — affectionately known as “Coach K” — was the face of duke basketball since he got frustrated UNLV punters in 1991 NCAA Men Final square.

As the NCAA’s all-time winningest coach ends his swan song at the 2022 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, FOX Sports Research decided to dive into his tenure from a betting perspective – namely, how he played against the spread (ATS) and straight (SU).

During his 42 years in Durham, North Carolina, Coach K etched his name in the record books with many milestones:

– 1,202 wins, the most coaches in NCAA history, regardless of ranking

– 101 wins in 131 games coached in the NCAA Tournament, the two highest marks by any coach since the tournament’s inception

– 69 wins and 15 titles in the ACC Tournament, the two most of any coach in conference history

– 1,569 games coached, the most of any coach in NCAA history

— 37 seasons with at least 20 wins

— 16 seasons with at least 30 wins

– 47 seasons as head coach, third in NCAA history behind Jim Phelan (49) and Phog Allen (48) (minimum 10 years as DI coach)

– 13 Final Four appearances, most of any manager of all time

– Five NCAA tournament titles (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015)

Our betting data dates back to the 2004-05 season and is made up of games in which the lines have been defined. During that span, the legendary coach has been surprisingly average from a game perspective. negative investment. When it comes to over/under, he’s been pretty even, hitting under in 49.6% of the games he’s coached. So where does Coach K’s Blue Devils betting value historically lie?

Two answers: Cameron Indoor Stadium and the ACC Tournament. Since the 2004-05 season, Duke is 33-9 SU in its conference tournament, which is a 4.8% return for bettors. The “Cameron Crazies” have also been a big help for his teams, as Duke is 139-123-7 ATS at home in that span – being just an underdog in six of these competitions. Punters saw a 3.1% return on investment during this period.

Now let’s see how Coach K fared in the NCAA Tournament. As for the Big Dance, the results are similar to those of the regular season. ATS, he’s 64-65 since 1985 despite going 101-29 SU. Below is a breakdown of how well he performed when it came to playing each round:

As you can see, Coach K only achieved ATS balance in the rounds following the Sweet 16. However, Duke’s performance as an underdog was outstanding in the tournament. Since 1985, the Blue Devils are 7-4 ATS as Dogs with four straight wins in those contests. They also covered and won twice in draft matches, including in the Elite Eight against UConn in 1990 and against Texas Tech in that year’s Sweet 16.

Here are some other betting milestones for Coach K since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985:

– 64 covers, the most of any trainer in this period

– 65 non-covers, also the most of any coach in this period

– 55 covers as favorite, most of all coaches of this period

– 23 covers as a double-digit favorite, most of any coach in this period

Seen in the chart below, Coach K has the third-lowest ATS coverage percentage in the NCAA Men’s Tournament among coaches with at least 50 appearances. As you can probably see by now, most of this data is skewed due to the number of games he has appeared in – literally the most of any manager in history.

One thing to note is the reverse of the table below – four of the five coaches with the The highest Tournament coverage percentage (minimum 50 games) are still active college coaches: Jim Boeheim (60%), Rick Pitino (56.2%), Tom Izzo (55.3%), Roy Williams (52.8%) and bill yourself (52.7%).

Ultimately, betting on Coach K led to various outcomes over his career. No coach in college basketball history has reached so many milestones, which undoubtedly influenced his betting record.

While the Blue Devils lost as favorites to Virginia Tech in the conference championship, there were two seasons when Duke won the national title after failing to win the ACC Tournament (1991, 2015). This Blue Devils side are just two wins away from doing so for the third time.

In March, the team is 3-1 ATS in four tournament games. The Blue Devils failed to cover as 18.5-point favorites in a 17-point win over Cal State Fullerton, then covered in their next three.

Coach K&Co. will face North Carolina on Saturday in what will be the first game of the NCAA Tournament for the Tobacco Road rivalry. Duke is currently a 4-point favorite and has the best odds of winning the tournament at +150. Under Coach K, they played nine national title matches with wins in five. Will the legendary coach return to the title game this season?

Whether you roll with Coach K or disappear him in the Final Four, head over to FOX bet to place your bets!

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