Tiny Nick Game Pick: 7/15

Locks

MLB (0.5 unit) Philadelphia Phillies @ Miami Marlins -0.5 First 5 innings (-115): 5:40 p.m. CT on Bally Sports FL

This is the last opportunity Sandy Alcantara has to make his case for the All-Star Game starter next week, and I see him making a solid argument. The Miami right-hander continues to close teams with regularity, and the Phillies are no different.

This current Philly roster is averaging .190 and .544 OPS against Alcantara, producing four runs against him this season in 14 innings. And it was with Bryce Harper in the lineup, whose absence really hurt this offense. Philadelphia slipped to the bottom of the league in most batting stats against all right-handers last month, and Alcantara is far from your standard right-hander.

So I doubt the Phillies will have much success at the plate, but we’ll need some Marlins offense, usually unpunched, for this bet. I say they get it against Kyle Gibson, against whom they have a combined average of 0.320 and 1.013 OPS. Gibson has already lost to Alcantara once this season, and the Marlins are 3-1 at home against the Phillies. With Philly also heading to the break on a skid, I like Miami’s chances of compounding those woes behind their ace thrower.

MLB (unit 0.5) Atlanta Braves / Washington Nationals Over 9.5 (-110): 6:05 p.m. CT on MASN

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – the Atlanta Braves left-handed pitcher delivers. Giving this powerful range another go-around against Patrick Corbin in the space of a week should allow them to produce many races. Corbin has a 10.38 ERA in two starts against Atlanta this season, with the Braves roster beating a career .339 against him.

The Braves should do their damage at home plate, but I also expect Washington to participate here as well. They get to see Ian Anderson for the second time in a week, who has a 5.79 ERA in two starts against them this season. Anderson also struggles a lot against right-handed bats averaging .314 and .882 OPS allowed, and that happens to be the vast majority of the Nats’ roster.

Those teams have also gone on slugfests this season, going 6-4 on that total and averaging 11.2 points per game. Meetings in DC have also been more consistent, so I see that continuing with two vulnerable starting pitchers tonight.

MLB (0.25 unit) Baltimore Orioles ML @ Tampa Bay Rays (+110): 6:10 p.m. CT on Bally Sports Sun

I mean, why not, right? When will you have another chance to bet on the Baltimore Orioles of all teams to claim their 11th straight victory? And no, rest assured, this isn’t a gamble based on karma or nostalgia, the O’s legitimately go together in this game.

Injuries have forced Tampa into a pretty patchwork roster lately, and they’ll be battling the underhanded good tonight Tyler Wells which Baltimore has won eight in a row. The right-hander Oriole is a thrower of fastballs and heavy sliders, which is exactly what Tampa struggles with. It shows their current roster has two total hits in 27 appearances against him.

With the Rays playing a typical bullpen game, it’s impossible to predict the game there, but this Baltimore team is swinging hot at bats with plenty of confidence. The Orioles already look tired of being bullied by Tampa, trailing just 5-4 in the season series after years of futility. I say they continue the streak today and even that streak behind maybe their best pitcher.

MLB (0.75 units) Pittsburgh Pirates/Colorado Rockies Over 11 (-110): 7:40 p.m. CT on AppleTV+

Coors Field has been doing its job lately, with the last four home series for the Rockies averaging 11.5 points per game. Only one of those series was against a team with a strong offense, so the conditions definitely give the boost you expect. The thin air, warm weather and blowing breeze may just be the icing on the cake tonight with the starting pitchers taking part in this one.

A beer league softball team could face mark german in a home start, as the Rockies right-hander was rocked for a 7.17 ERA at home. Those starts are 5-3-1 on that total with 12.1 runs on average. Against that pitch and under ideal hitting conditions, a Pirates formation that has underrated power should do some damage tonight.

But a lot of damage should come from Colorado bats against the left-handed starter Jose Quintana. The Rockies continue to have some of the best numbers in baseball against left-handed pitchers, especially at home. Their right-dominated lineup is perfect for attacking Quintana’s weakness, and they’ll be up against relievers worn down by a lot of work over the past few series. I see this game as having serious slugfest potential, and a fairly low total by Coors Field standards should be easily wiped out.

degenerate

No degenerate today.

Tiny Nick is 804-674 ATS (+76.2 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Each day it will offer its Locks and Degenerate choices. The locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun but riskier choices.


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