MLB (0.75 unit) Minnesota Twins ML @ Milwaukee Brewers (-110): 7:10 p.m. CT on Bally Sports North
Poor Dylan Bundy, it really wasn’t his fault the Twins lost 9 of his 10 starts in May and June. A lack of running support has doomed his and their chances in so many of these games, but that seems to be turning around. Minnesota has scored 6 points in Bundy’s last 4 starts, going 3-1, and that support should continue here.
Shorthanded Brewers rotation turns to Ethan Small today, a southpaw with less than 3 innings of major league work on his resume. While the Twins haven’t been great against southpaws in general, a rookie is likely a different story for a roster that came out of All-Star break on a tear. Bundy is likely to drop some races like he usually does, but Minnesota continues to rectify the race bracket issue should be enough to earn them the win here.
Bonus bet (0.75 unit): twins/brewers over 9 years old (-110)
I mentioned that Bundy is likely to drop some races, and there could be a lot, in fact. Milwaukee is sneakily good against right-handed throwing, ranking in the top 5 for runs, homers, and most power metrics. There are also two important trends working in favor here. Milwaukee lost in ugly fashion yesterday, and the Brewers have the best game-over record after a loss. And the Twins happen to be the better team in road games, also with the highest over/under overall. All of that makes me see the most cash-ins in this one.
MLB (1 unit) NY Yankees ML @ NY Mets (-115): 6:10 p.m. CT on TBS
It’s been a while since we’ve had a subway series where both New York teams lead their respective divisions. It might be tight to start tonight, but I see the Bronx Bombers taking Game 1 as they look to establish themselves as the kings of New York.
As good as Taijuan walker was at Citi Field, the level of competition will take a drastic leap tonight. He hasn’t faced an opponent close to what the Yankees bring against right-handed pitchers, ranking at or near the top of baseball in just about every offensive category. Signs of trouble are there, as he allowed the Yankees roster a .937 OPS in his career.
During that time, the Mets struggled with left-handed throwing, ranking in the bottom third of baseball for most categories. So even though the Yanks have lost four straight Jordan Montgomery starts out weird, he should keep the Mets lineup strong enough tonight. That’s probably why the Yankees are getting all the steam from the betting market here, so back them up to take this opener of a compelling game.
MLB (0.75 unit) Chicago White Sox ML @ Colorado Rockies (-110): 7:40 p.m. CT on SportsNet RM
The White Sox are definitely on the rise, with all the talent they’ve finally put things on the field. They can’t afford not to capitalize on situations like this, facing a struggling pitcher on a team that just isn’t very good.
The ChiSox are unique in that they can plot a formation where everyone is hitting right-handed, which should give them a big advantage against mark german here. The Rockies right-hander has been considerably worse against this side of home plate and isn’t good at home overall with a 6.63 ERA.
And conversely, the Rockies aren’t very good against right-handed pitchers like Michael Kopech, which starts for the Southsiders. They’re only 25th in scoring against right-handers, and all of their right-handed bats will struggle against a fireball thrower allowing just an average of .166 and .525 OPS on this side of the plate. All of this translates into a big game advantage for Chicago, which I see continuing to bounce back from the struggles of the start of the season.
No degenerate today.
Tiny Nick is 815-681 ATS (+76.9 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Each day it will offer its Locks and Degenerate choices. The locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun but riskier choices.