Tiny Nick Game Pick: 7/30


MLB (1 unit) Milwaukee Brewers ML @ Boston Red Sox (+100): 3:10 p.m. CT on FS1

I just have to fade away Nick Pivette and the injury-riddled Red Sox here, especially getting an even prize. Pivetta had a solid year, but July was an incredibly awful month for him, posting a 9.95 ERA and 2.11 WHIP over 4 starts. Of course, much of that damage was caused by the Yankees’ formation, but this Milwaukee team is a top team against right-handed pitchers and should continue its woes.

I just don’t think this Boston roster, averaging just 3.3 points per game since the All-Star break, will be able to keep up. They are missing too many key contributors at the moment and they will face a pitcher in Eric Lauer who has rediscovered his strongest tricks lately. There is also a huge gap between these teams, with the Brewers having perhaps the best double in baseball for closing a game. That should allow the Brewers to continue Boston’s slide here.

MLB (1 unit) Baltimore Orioles ML @ Cincinnati Reds (+100): 5:40 p.m. CT on Bally Sports Ohio

A key part of Baltimore’s rise to prominence has been their ability to handle business against bad teams. The Orioles are an incredible 16-2 in their last 18 games against teams with a record below .500. It’s not easy to accomplish in the scorching days of baseball season when variance rears its ugly head on a daily basis. A bad team in Cincinnati gives them the opportunity today to extend that run, and I think they do.

The Orioles will send Dean Kremer today, who has been excellent in away games with a 1.66 ERA on the road this season. This gives them the advantage of starting on Tyler Mahle, who was knocked down at his home park this season for a 4.94 ERA. It also struggles more against right-handed bats, which make up the vast majority of the Orioles range.

Neither of these starters typically go deep into games, so a huge bullpen advantage for Baltimore kicks in. Cincinnati is dead last in the bullpen ERA and has allowed the most runs in the baseball after the 5th inning, while Baltimore is 3rd and 2nd respectively in those categories. With the Orioles playing great baseball in general, I see that pitching advantage leading them to another win against a bad team.

MLB (1 unit) Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+110): 6:15 p.m. CT on FOX

Absent from a crazy ninth inning of Thursday’s game, the Phillies have been dominant in this series. It should be another easy win for Philadelphia here, as they have a pretty significant throwing advantage.

They will send Ranger Suarez to the mound of back-to-back great starts, including one against Atlanta that crushes left-handers like him. Pittsburgh isn’t crushing lefties, ranking 27th in average and 26th in OPS against lefties. With Suarez’s current form, he should struggle against the weak Pirates line-up.

The Philly Bats should also have an easy time against Mitch Keller here. While he’s calmed down a bit this month, Keller is absolutely crushed by the Phillies’ roster, allowing them a career average of .438 and 1.231 OPS. With that kind of game advantage in their favor, the Phillies should get an easy win against a Pittsburgh team that has the worst running-line margin in baseball as an underdog.

MLB (0.5 unit) LA Dodgers / Colorado Rockies Over 11.5 (-110): 7:10 p.m. CT on SportsNet RM

It’s not often you watch a Clayton Kershaw start and see he was absolutely rocked. But that’s what happened the last time he went to Coors Field, allowing 6 runs in just 4 innings.

It could be an isolated incident for a pitcher who may be heading to Cooperstown. Or it could be a trend, given the Rockies’ roster has a combined .333 and .864 OPS against Kershaw in his career. And given that Colorado has the most runs, the most extra hits and the 2nd best average against lefties this season, I see more of a trend than a mirage.

So I’m inclined to believe the Rockies can get more than a few runs in this one, and will likely need it with the way the Dodgers are hitting everything. Strangely, they don’t have good career numbers against Kyle Freeland, but this season marked him for a 7.04 ERA in 3 games. Freeland also struggles much harder at home, with a 5.66 ERA and .306 base average allowed. Even with Kershaw on the mound, this one has the potential for a typical Coors slugfest, so take over.


MLB Texas Rangers/LA Angels Over 8.5 (-110): 8:07 p.m. CT on FS1

With such bad luck, it can sometimes be painful to see the angel rubbing around Shohei Ohtani try to help him produce leads. But there should be enough attack from both teams here to put this game through on a relatively low total. That seems even lower considering those teams are 9-2 on that number in meetings this season, averaging 10.5 points per game.

With Hunt Silseth from LA here, the Rangers could do the majority of the work to overtake the number. The rookie right-hander saw his ERA ball this summer and will struggle against Texas left-handed big bats as he averages .357 and 1.175 OPS on that side.

But the Angels should be able to get some points against Glenn Otto, who has a 7.09 ERA in his last 6 starts. He’s much worse against right-handed bats, which LA has a lot of, and they put up some good numbers against him last time they met. My concern here is Corey Seager maybe with an injury here, which is really hurting the Texas offense, but this one should be a decent candidate based on trends alone.

Tiny Nick is 818-687 ATS (+74.5 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Each day it will offer its Locks and Degenerate choices. The locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun but riskier choices.

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