A former Heavyweight title challenger tries to dazzle his compatriots this Saturday (September 3, 2022) when Ciryl Gane takes on Tai Tuivasa inside the Accor Arena in Paris, France. At 185lbs, Robert Whittaker takes on Marvin Vettori in a fight that could easily put the winner on the verge of a title shot, while Charles Jourdain battles Nathaniel Wood in what looks like a guaranteed ‘fight of the night’ contender. .
Gambling season never ends, so grab those checkbooks and let’s get started…
What was wrong with UFC 278 (The part you’ve all been waiting for)?
Alexander Romanov, AJ Fletcher and Jose Aldo
I make a group of them because I feel like I can attribute all their losses to the same thing: I didn’t realize they were fighting at altitude. All three looked great at first; Romanov was ragdolling Marcin Tybura, Fletcher was re-enacting Ange Loosa, and Aldo was staying off the fence and constantly catching Merab Dvalishvili with counter knees. Then the fatigue set in and they all, well, stopped doing that.
Jared Gordon, Amir Albazi and Tyson Pedro
They did everything I expected of them: a cardio-powered beatdown from Gordon, a submission from Albazi, and a lightning-fast mutilation from Pedro. A+, gentlemen.
There is still altitude. The guy went from 25 minutes of mayhem with one of the most exhausting fighters in the division, Marvin Vettori, to gassing so hard he couldn’t stop a completely fried Luke Rockhold.
Despite being 80% limbs and 2% body fat, Woodson had never shown any durability issues in the Octagon. His takedown defense usually holds up better than that too, but I’m willing to attribute that to fatigue. While I expected him to struggle early with Luis Saldana’s move early on, the last thing I expected was him to run face first into a control hook and get shorted . Luckily, Saldana hit him so hard that his own brain fell out, resulting in a critical point deduction and a draw. It doesn’t matter, because…
You just have to laugh, right?
OK, I’m going to bare my heart for a second. If that’s not your cup of tea, ctrl-F “undercard” to skip it if you’re on the desktop or just keep scrolling. Whether or.
There was an old interview with Chael Sonnen where, in a rare moment of unfiltered honesty, he explained that winning a fight was a relief rather than a triumph. Even when I was in the green all year, that’s often how I felt. I watch fights with my stomach in knots, waiting to exhale if my choice wins or to feel my guts flip if they don’t. It’s not even about personal pride in having a big shiny number; I started doing this because it was fun and I wanted to help people make money. It hurts when I’m wrong because I’m terrified that someone entrusted me with their money and I misled them.
And what’s so frustrating is that in terms of picking pure wins/losses with no money in play, this is the best year I’ve ever had. I was about 60% on my preliminary picks last year and I’m about 67% so far in 2022. Two out of three fights are right, and yet I feel like the third is proving always be the one I told people to put Money on. I’m using the same general straight/parlay tactics that have worked for the past few years while watching more tapes than ever, and it’s not working.
I want to keep doing that, even though I sometimes feel like those stakes make it exponentially harder to just enjoy a fight. I miss what it was like watching the UFC in the early days when it was just me, the other Vanderbilt BJJ guys and the fucking sports bar that was 100% a money laundering front . But I will continue to write, and you are free to choose whether to listen or not. I’ll add another $400 to make $1,000 and we’ll go from there.
UFCParis Odds for bottom board:
Abusupiyan Magomedov (-260) against Dustin Stoltzfus (+220)
Although Magomedov has been out of action for quite some time, even his 2018 version would get my recommendation in this match. Stoltzfus’ wrestling has consistently failed him against UFC-caliber grapplers, and with Magomedov’s wrestling chops, “Abus” has a clear path to victory. Magomedov is also the heavier of the two, which should allow him to control the stand-up given Stoltzfus’ striking lack of polish.
Michael Figlak (-195) against Ziam prices (+165)
For my money, Figlak is the most promising of the many fighters making their UFC debut this weekend. He’s also perfectly suited to beat Ziam, boasting a high-volume, high-pressure striking style that can overwhelm Ziam’s one-shot attack. Additionally, Figlak has wrestling in his back pocket, which Ziam has always struggled with in the Octagon. A profitable investment.
Benoit Saint-Denis (-265) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+225)
Gabriel Miranda’s only chance here is a submission out of nowhere. Saint-Denis has a clear advantage on the feet and an equally significant wrestling advantage; as dangerous as “Fly’s” BJJ might be, it’s not much of a threat when “God of War” can dictate where and when ground exchanges take place or even avoid them altogether. Saint-Denis will be the pride of the faithful French.
Nassurdin Imavov (-260) against Joaquin Buckley (+220)
Without touching this one. Imavov has superior technical striking and a proven track record against super aggressive opponents, but Buckley looked ridiculously improved against Albert Duraev and proved far too dangerous to bet against in general.
Khalid Taha (-125) against Christian Quinonez (+105)
While I recognize that Taha’s disappointing UFC record was the product of very difficult matchmaking, I like Quinonez’s chances of causing an upset. “Problema’s” long-range, movement-heavy attack seems like a good response to Taha’s heavy swings, and he can also struggle a bit if necessary. Don’t get mad, because Quinonez’s tendency to shy away from punches and his reluctance to check low kicks might give Taha the opening he needs to drop the hammer, but don’t neglect it either. .
Stephanie Egger (-285) against Ailin Perez (+240)
Ailin Perez was going to destroy Zarah Fairn, and now that Fairn has stepped down, she’s going to be destroyed by Stephanie Egger. “Fiona” is usually laser-focused to get the clinch, which plays right into Egger’s hands. On top of that, Perez isn’t a particularly formidable attacker or submission artist, so there’s nothing stopping Egger from putting her game to work. Even at these inflated odds, Egger is worth it.
UFC Paris odds for the main card:
Ciryl Gane (-540) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+420)
If someone is close to even and you want to give them that last boost in the positives, Gane might not be the worst option. Tuivasa lacks the struggle that Francis Ngannou used to stop “Bon Gamin” and the height/reach that allowed Alexander Volkov to keep pace. Tuivasa has proven he can hang out with other brawlers during his current streak, but he’s yet to face someone comparable to Gane.
Robert Whittaker (-230) against Marvin Vettori (+195)
I like “Bobby Knuckles” here. He’s historically very seasoned in the kind of high-energy slugfests that Vettori favors, from his duology with Yoel Romero to his successful defusing of Jared Cannonier. He also showed enough wrestling chops to knock Vettori’s best game out of the equation, so bet on the former champion.
Alessio Di Chirico (-115) against Roman Kopylov (-105)
If I had to pick anyone it would be Kopylov, but Di Chirico has surprised me in the past. It’s probably best to stay away.
Charles Jourdain (-135) against Nathaniel Wood (+115)
Speaking as a die-hard Charles Jourdain fan, Wood is quite a tempting underdog. Not only can he match Jourdain’s production, but he’s a powerful wrestler, one that Jourdain struggles with on a regular basis. It’s a super volatile game, so keep the investment measured, but make sure it’s there.
Guillaume Gomis (-230) against Jarno Errens (+185)
I am ready to reach out for Gomis. He is much more versatile, powerful, and agile than Errens; as long as he’s not sandbagging like in some of his recent efforts, he should be around the Dutchman.
Nasrat Haqparast (-230) against Jean Makdessi (+195)
On paper, the younger, faster, and more powerful Haqparast should win without issue. Thing is, he really struggled to rise to the occasion, while Makdessi turned the clock back impressively in his last fight with Ignacio Bahamondes. Gun to my head, Haqparast, but it’s a pie I don’t put a finger in.
Best UFC Paris bets:
- Parlay — Benoit Saint-Denis and William Gomis: bet $80 to win $81.60
- Single bet — Nathaniel Wood: Bet $40 to win $46
- Parlay – Michal Figlak and Stephanie Egger: Bet $60 to win $62.40
- Parlay – Ciryl Gane and Cristian Quinonez: Bet $50 to win $71.50
- Parlay – Robert Whittaker and Abusupiyan Magomedov: Bet $80 to Win $82.40
The top two fights in UFC Paris are great, and if you love watching talent develop, you’re in luck. See you Saturday, the Maniacs.
Initial investment for 2022: $600
Additional investment (August 2022): $400
Current total: $401.32
remember that MMAmania.com will provide live, round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Paris fight card herestarting with the ESPN+ “Preliminary” matches, which are due to start at 12 p.m. ET, then the main card balance remaining on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.
For the latest and greatest news and notes from UFC Paris: ‘Gane vs. Tuivasa’, be sure to check out our comprehensive event archive. here.